**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in NYC on August 12, 2026, centers on 74–75°F (47.5% implied probability) and 72–73°F (35.5%), reflecting model consensus for a mild overnight minimum driven by above-average warmth and limited radiational cooling.** August 2026 is trending warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline, with National Weather Service outlooks assigning a 40–50% chance of above-normal temperatures across the New York metro area. Current forecasts indicate daytime highs near 82°F accompanied by elevated dew points and partly to mostly cloudy skies, which suppress nighttime temperature drops by trapping heat and reducing clear-sky cooling. Typical August overnight lows average around 70°F, but persistent southerly flow and urban heat-island effects are keeping minimums several degrees higher on this date. Model guidance shows little disagreement on the overnight low, with limited potential for stronger cooling unless unexpected clear skies and lighter winds develop. The market resolution relies on official observations (e.g., Central Park or LaGuardia), and the tight clustering around the mid-70s captures the current forecast envelope while acknowledging residual uncertainty from short-term atmospheric variability.