The strong Democratic lean of Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Lori Trahan's established record since 2018, combined with the state's unbroken Democratic hold on all nine House seats since 1994 and limited Republican infrastructure, reinforces this positioning ahead of the September 2026 primaries. Limited GOP recruitment, including primary candidate Gary Grossi, further contributes to the low 5.5% implied probability for a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major national political shift, unexpected primary disruption, or late-cycle developments altering turnout in this safely Democratic seat, though such shifts would need to overcome longstanding structural advantages to meaningfully affect the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMA-03 House Election Winner
MA-03 House Election Winner
$18,897 वॉल्यूम
$18,897 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$18,897 वॉल्यूम
$18,897 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,103 वॉल्यूम
94%
Republican Party
$8,794 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Lori Trahan's established record since 2018, combined with the state's unbroken Democratic hold on all nine House seats since 1994 and limited Republican infrastructure, reinforces this positioning ahead of the September 2026 primaries. Limited GOP recruitment, including primary candidate Gary Grossi, further contributes to the low 5.5% implied probability for a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major national political shift, unexpected primary disruption, or late-cycle developments altering turnout in this safely Democratic seat, though such shifts would need to overcome longstanding structural advantages to meaningfully affect the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$18,897समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Lori Trahan's established record since 2018, combined with the state's unbroken Democratic hold on all nine House seats since 1994 and limited Republican infrastructure, reinforces this positioning ahead of the September 2026 primaries. Limited GOP recruitment, including primary candidate Gary Grossi, further contributes to the low 5.5% implied probability for a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major national political shift, unexpected primary disruption, or late-cycle developments altering turnout in this safely Democratic seat, though such shifts would need to overcome longstanding structural advantages to meaningfully affect the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$18,897समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of Massachusetts's 3rd congressional district, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Lori Trahan's established record since 2018, combined with the state's unbroken Democratic hold on all nine House seats since 1994 and limited Republican infrastructure, reinforces this positioning ahead of the September 2026 primaries. Limited GOP recruitment, including primary candidate Gary Grossi, further contributes to the low 5.5% implied probability for a Republican victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major national political shift, unexpected primary disruption, or late-cycle developments altering turnout in this safely Democratic seat, though such shifts would need to overcome longstanding structural advantages to meaningfully affect the outcome.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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