Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's longstanding Safe Democratic rating, strong partisan lean in suburban and coastal areas south of Boston, and Rep. Jake Auchincloss's incumbency advantage after winning reelection in 2024. Recent Democratic primary challengers, including progressives Ihssane Leckey and Jason Poulos announcing bids in early 2026, signal intraparty competition ahead of the September 1 primary but have not dented general election prospects given the GOP's historical weakness here, with no standout Republican contenders yet. Upsets remain possible via a damaging incumbent scandal, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or weak Democratic nominee emerging from a fractured primary, though such barriers align with the slim 5.8% Republican odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएमए -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
एमए -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
6%
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$17,239 वॉल्यूम
94%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$17,879 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's longstanding Safe Democratic rating, strong partisan lean in suburban and coastal areas south of Boston, and Rep. Jake Auchincloss's incumbency advantage after winning reelection in 2024. Recent Democratic primary challengers, including progressives Ihssane Leckey and Jason Poulos announcing bids in early 2026, signal intraparty competition ahead of the September 1 primary but have not dented general election prospects given the GOP's historical weakness here, with no standout Republican contenders yet. Upsets remain possible via a damaging incumbent scandal, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or weak Democratic nominee emerging from a fractured primary, though such barriers align with the slim 5.8% Republican odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,118समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's longstanding Safe Democratic rating, strong partisan lean in suburban and coastal areas south of Boston, and Rep. Jake Auchincloss's incumbency advantage after winning reelection in 2024. Recent Democratic primary challengers, including progressives Ihssane Leckey and Jason Poulos announcing bids in early 2026, signal intraparty competition ahead of the September 1 primary but have not dented general election prospects given the GOP's historical weakness here, with no standout Republican contenders yet. Upsets remain possible via a damaging incumbent scandal, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or weak Democratic nominee emerging from a fractured primary, though such barriers align with the slim 5.8% Republican odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,118समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's longstanding Safe Democratic rating, strong partisan lean in suburban and coastal areas south of Boston, and Rep. Jake Auchincloss's incumbency advantage after winning reelection in 2024. Recent Democratic primary challengers, including progressives Ihssane Leckey and Jason Poulos announcing bids in early 2026, signal intraparty competition ahead of the September 1 primary but have not dented general election prospects given the GOP's historical weakness here, with no standout Republican contenders yet. Upsets remain possible via a damaging incumbent scandal, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or weak Democratic nominee emerging from a fractured primary, though such barriers align with the slim 5.8% Republican odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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