Wellington's position astride the narrow Cook Strait funnels prevailing westerlies, producing frequent strong gusts that historically peak during spring when pressure gradients intensify. With September 2026 roughly halfway complete and recent observations showing daily maximum gusts mostly in the 60–70 km/h range, traders assign the highest implied probability (69.5%) to a monthly peak falling in the 90–101 km/h band. Model consensus through late September points to continued moderate-to-strong northerly and westerly flows without an immediate major low-pressure system capable of pushing gusts above 102 km/h, supporting the 20% odds on that higher outcome. The low 3.3% probability assigned to a sub-89 km/h peak reflects both the climatological baseline for the windiest season and the absence of unusually calm conditions so far. Updated MetService and NIWA forecasts, along with any developing southerly changes, remain the key near-term variables that could shift these market-implied odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर में दुनिया के सबसे हवादार शहर में हवा के झोंके
90 to 101 km/h 72%
102 km/h or above 19%
89 km/h or below 3.3%
89 km/h or below
3%
90 to 101 km/h
72%
102 km/h or above
19%
90 to 101 km/h 72%
102 km/h or above 19%
89 km/h or below 3.3%
89 km/h or below
3%
90 to 101 km/h
72%
102 km/h or above
19%
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=9&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 31, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=9&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
Wellington's position astride the narrow Cook Strait funnels prevailing westerlies, producing frequent strong gusts that historically peak during spring when pressure gradients intensify. With September 2026 roughly halfway complete and recent observations showing daily maximum gusts mostly in the 60–70 km/h range, traders assign the highest implied probability (69.5%) to a monthly peak falling in the 90–101 km/h band. Model consensus through late September points to continued moderate-to-strong northerly and westerly flows without an immediate major low-pressure system capable of pushing gusts above 102 km/h, supporting the 20% odds on that higher outcome. The low 3.3% probability assigned to a sub-89 km/h peak reflects both the climatological baseline for the windiest season and the absence of unusually calm conditions so far. Updated MetService and NIWA forecasts, along with any developing southerly changes, remain the key near-term variables that could shift these market-implied odds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया

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