Incumbent Juanma Moreno of the Popular Party enters the Andalusian regional election on May 17 as the clear frontrunner, backed by consistent polling that projects his party to secure the largest share of seats in the 109-seat parliament. His campaign has centered on delivering stable governance and avoiding dependence on Vox, building on the absolute majority achieved in 2022. Opposition efforts by Socialist candidate María Jesús Montero and smaller parties have failed to close the gap amid broader national headwinds for the left. Traders price Moreno at 98.8 percent because surveys show no realistic path for rivals to overtake the PP's projected seat total. A decisive loss of majority forcing an unexpected coalition, unusually high opposition turnout, or a major last-minute scandal could still alter the outcome before final vote counts are certified.