The near-certain trader consensus that Sen. Ruben Gallego will remain in office through May 31 stems from Arizona’s junior senator facing no active removal process or resignation signals two weeks from the deadline. Gallego’s term runs through January 2031, with reelection scheduled for 2030, and Senate rules require supermajority votes for expulsion that have not materialized from the April ethics complaint referral. He continues advancing legislation, including committee passage of the Clarity Act on cryptocurrency regulation and veterans’ benefits measures in mid-May. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden health developments, an unexpected resignation announcement, or rapid Senate Ethics Committee findings leading to floor action, though none have surfaced in recent weeks.