Recent observational data through late September place global mean surface air temperatures for the month on track for roughly 16.27 °C, trailing the September 2023 record by about 0.10 °C according to ERA5 and ECMWF ensemble projections. This margin, combined with the seasonal cycle and the absence of late-month surges sufficient to close the gap, underpins trader consensus that 2026 will rank second hottest. Persistent ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño have sustained elevated anomalies, yet not at levels seen in 2023. Final rankings could shift only if substantial revisions emerge in post-processed datasets or if the last two days produce an unprecedented warm spike, both low-probability outcomes given current model consensus.