**Both Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionist Party) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) have repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election.** In June 2026 statements, Ben-Gvir emphasized that the parties draw from fundamentally different voter bases—Otzma Yehudit targeting a broader national constituency while Religious Zionism appeals to a narrower religious-Zionist sector—and argued that separate runs strengthen the overall right-wing bloc. Smotrich reinforced this in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, stating his party should contest the election independently as a “big, strong, significant party” and confirming no plans for an alliance. Party actions align with these positions. Religious Zionism held internal primaries in July 2026 to finalize its own Knesset slate, with Smotrich at the top. Otzma Yehudit has likewise prepared an independent list. Recent polls show Otzma Yehudit comfortably clearing the 3.25% threshold (projected 7–9 seats) while Religious Zionism hovers near or just above it (4–6 seats), reducing pressure for a technical merger of the kind Netanyahu brokered in 2022. These public rejections, completed primaries, and polling data indicating independent viability have shaped trader expectations that the parties will not appear on the same list, producing the current 77.5% probability on “No.” Netanyahu has previously explored ways to consolidate right-wing votes, but neither leader has shown willingness to revive the joint format.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
23% संभावना
नया
नया
8 सित, 2026
हाँ
23% संभावना
नया
नया
8 सित, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Both Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionist Party) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) have repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election.**
In June 2026 statements, Ben-Gvir emphasized that the parties draw from fundamentally different voter bases—Otzma Yehudit targeting a broader national constituency while Religious Zionism appeals to a narrower religious-Zionist sector—and argued that separate runs strengthen the overall right-wing bloc. Smotrich reinforced this in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, stating his party should contest the election independently as a “big, strong, significant party” and confirming no plans for an alliance.
Party actions align with these positions. Religious Zionism held internal primaries in July 2026 to finalize its own Knesset slate, with Smotrich at the top. Otzma Yehudit has likewise prepared an independent list. Recent polls show Otzma Yehudit comfortably clearing the 3.25% threshold (projected 7–9 seats) while Religious Zionism hovers near or just above it (4–6 seats), reducing pressure for a technical merger of the kind Netanyahu brokered in 2022.
These public rejections, completed primaries, and polling data indicating independent viability have shaped trader expectations that the parties will not appear on the same list, producing the current 77.5% probability on “No.” Netanyahu has previously explored ways to consolidate right-wing votes, but neither leader has shown willingness to revive the joint format.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,395समाप्ति तिथि
8 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Both Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionist Party) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) have repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election.**
In June 2026 statements, Ben-Gvir emphasized that the parties draw from fundamentally different voter bases—Otzma Yehudit targeting a broader national constituency while Religious Zionism appeals to a narrower religious-Zionist sector—and argued that separate runs strengthen the overall right-wing bloc. Smotrich reinforced this in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, stating his party should contest the election independently as a “big, strong, significant party” and confirming no plans for an alliance.
Party actions align with these positions. Religious Zionism held internal primaries in July 2026 to finalize its own Knesset slate, with Smotrich at the top. Otzma Yehudit has likewise prepared an independent list. Recent polls show Otzma Yehudit comfortably clearing the 3.25% threshold (projected 7–9 seats) while Religious Zionism hovers near or just above it (4–6 seats), reducing pressure for a technical merger of the kind Netanyahu brokered in 2022.
These public rejections, completed primaries, and polling data indicating independent viability have shaped trader expectations that the parties will not appear on the same list, producing the current 77.5% probability on “No.” Netanyahu has previously explored ways to consolidate right-wing votes, but neither leader has shown willingness to revive the joint format.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
वॉल्यूम
$1,395समाप्ति तिथि
8 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Both Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionist Party) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) have repeatedly and explicitly ruled out a joint electoral list for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election.** In June 2026 statements, Ben-Gvir emphasized that the parties draw from fundamentally different voter bases—Otzma Yehudit targeting a broader national constituency while Religious Zionism appeals to a narrower religious-Zionist sector—and argued that separate runs strengthen the overall right-wing bloc. Smotrich reinforced this in a mid-August 2026 Jerusalem Post interview, stating his party should contest the election independently as a “big, strong, significant party” and confirming no plans for an alliance. Party actions align with these positions. Religious Zionism held internal primaries in July 2026 to finalize its own Knesset slate, with Smotrich at the top. Otzma Yehudit has likewise prepared an independent list. Recent polls show Otzma Yehudit comfortably clearing the 3.25% threshold (projected 7–9 seats) while Religious Zionism hovers near or just above it (4–6 seats), reducing pressure for a technical merger of the kind Netanyahu brokered in 2022. These public rejections, completed primaries, and polling data indicating independent viability have shaped trader expectations that the parties will not appear on the same list, producing the current 77.5% probability on “No.” Netanyahu has previously explored ways to consolidate right-wing votes, but neither leader has shown willingness to revive the joint format.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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