The 25th Amendment's procedural requirements create major structural barriers to removal, as it demands the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare presidential incapacity, followed by congressional affirmation within tight timelines. With the current administration's second term underway in 2026 and less than five months until 2027, traders assign a 97% probability to "No" because cabinet loyalty, party control of Congress, and the absence of verified incapacity claims make invocation highly improbable. Historical precedent shows the amendment has never been used to remove a sitting president through this process, and recent political dynamics reflect strong institutional resistance to such a step. Even with potential triggers like acute health developments or internal administration shifts, the short resolution window and high evidentiary thresholds limit realistic pathways for a successful outcome before the deadline.