The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअमेरिका द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
अमेरिका द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
$770,068 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
30 सितंबर, 2026
1%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
4%
$770,068 वॉल्यूम
30 सितंबर, 2026
$57,189 वॉल्यूम
1%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
$52,068 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$770,068समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$770,068समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site retaining technical readiness that would require an estimated 24-36 months to prepare for an underground test. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, briefly elevated discussion of resumption, yet subsequent analyses from the NNSA, Congress, and arms control experts have emphasized significant logistical, budgetary, and diplomatic barriers. Routine unarmed Minuteman III launches and stockpile stewardship programs continue without explosive yields, while New START's February 2026 expiration and ongoing modernization debates add context without altering the low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026. Trader consensus reflects these structural constraints over short-term political signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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