Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including US-Iran frictions and risks to Strait of Hormuz flows, remain the dominant driver supporting WTI crude prices near $91–$93 per barrel in early October 2026. Recent reports of recovering Gulf exports and higher September flows have capped upside, while elevated inventories and tightening financial conditions from Fed policy weigh on demand. EIA projections point to Brent averaging around $90 in the second half of the year amid ongoing supply constraints. Key near-term catalysts include the October 2 US jobs report, October 14 CPI release, late-month FOMC decision, and OPEC deliberations, which could shift trader-implied odds on thresholds such as $95 or $100.