Recent federal immigration policy adjustments, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 and targeting reduced temporary resident inflows at 385,000, have driven sharp declines in non-permanent residents since late 2025. This produced Canada's first annual population drop on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people amid outflows of international students and workers. Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts indicate flat growth or a modest further contraction in 2026, though moderated by stabilized targets and potential permit extensions. The closely contested 54% probability for no record drop reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing quarterly outflows will exceed 2025 levels or stabilize amid low natural increase and economic factors. Mid-year Statistics Canada updates and any shifts in study or work permit approvals could alter the trajectory either direction.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2027
नया
नया
30 अप्रैल, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent federal immigration policy adjustments, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 and targeting reduced temporary resident inflows at 385,000, have driven sharp declines in non-permanent residents since late 2025. This produced Canada's first annual population drop on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people amid outflows of international students and workers. Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts indicate flat growth or a modest further contraction in 2026, though moderated by stabilized targets and potential permit extensions. The closely contested 54% probability for no record drop reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing quarterly outflows will exceed 2025 levels or stabilize amid low natural increase and economic factors. Mid-year Statistics Canada updates and any shifts in study or work permit approvals could alter the trajectory either direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,512समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent federal immigration policy adjustments, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 and targeting reduced temporary resident inflows at 385,000, have driven sharp declines in non-permanent residents since late 2025. This produced Canada's first annual population drop on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people amid outflows of international students and workers. Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts indicate flat growth or a modest further contraction in 2026, though moderated by stabilized targets and potential permit extensions. The closely contested 54% probability for no record drop reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing quarterly outflows will exceed 2025 levels or stabilize amid low natural increase and economic factors. Mid-year Statistics Canada updates and any shifts in study or work permit approvals could alter the trajectory either direction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$1,512समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent federal immigration policy adjustments, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 and targeting reduced temporary resident inflows at 385,000, have driven sharp declines in non-permanent residents since late 2025. This produced Canada's first annual population drop on record in 2025, exceeding 100,000 people amid outflows of international students and workers. Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts indicate flat growth or a modest further contraction in 2026, though moderated by stabilized targets and potential permit extensions. The closely contested 54% probability for no record drop reflects uncertainty over whether ongoing quarterly outflows will exceed 2025 levels or stabilize amid low natural increase and economic factors. Mid-year Statistics Canada updates and any shifts in study or work permit approvals could alter the trajectory either direction.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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