The absence of any active US territorial disputes, military campaigns, or diplomatic initiatives aimed at formal sovereignty claims underpins the strong trader consensus against annexation in 2026. Modern international norms, UN charter prohibitions on territorial conquest, and domestic requirements for congressional approval create significant procedural and diplomatic barriers, consistent with the lack of such actions since the early twentieth century. Base rates of post-1945 territorial changes further reinforce expectations of continuity. Late-year escalations in conflicts involving US forces, sudden executive actions on disputed areas like Arctic claims or Pacific outposts, or negotiated transfers could still shift probabilities, though each faces substantial legal, alliance, and political hurdles before resolution by year-end.