Recent static fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral Launch Complex 36 severely damaged New Glenn's sole active pad, with official assessments indicating over a year for full rebuild amid structural and infrastructure repairs. This incident followed the April 19 NG-3 mission, which achieved booster reuse but ended in an upper-stage anomaly stranding its payload. With launch dates now listed as TBD through at least late 2026 and no alternative pads immediately available, trader consensus favors no additional flights this year despite Blue Origin statements on potential end-of-year resumption using spares and on-site fixes. Historical heavy-lift timelines and ongoing investigations into BE-4 engine performance further support the elevated implied probability against near-term operations.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent static fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral Launch Complex 36 severely damaged New Glenn's sole active pad, with official assessments indicating over a year for full rebuild amid structural and infrastructure repairs. This incident followed the April 19 NG-3 mission, which achieved booster reuse but ended in an upper-stage anomaly stranding its payload. With launch dates now listed as TBD through at least late 2026 and no alternative pads immediately available, trader consensus favors no additional flights this year despite Blue Origin statements on potential end-of-year resumption using spares and on-site fixes. Historical heavy-lift timelines and ongoing investigations into BE-4 engine performance further support the elevated implied probability against near-term operations.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$210Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.Recent static fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral Launch Complex 36 severely damaged New Glenn's sole active pad, with official assessments indicating over a year for full rebuild amid structural and infrastructure repairs. This incident followed the April 19 NG-3 mission, which achieved booster reuse but ended in an upper-stage anomaly stranding its payload. With launch dates now listed as TBD through at least late 2026 and no alternative pads immediately available, trader consensus favors no additional flights this year despite Blue Origin statements on potential end-of-year resumption using spares and on-site fixes. Historical heavy-lift timelines and ongoing investigations into BE-4 engine performance further support the elevated implied probability against near-term operations.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Volume
$210Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent static fire explosion on May 28 at Cape Canaveral Launch Complex 36 severely damaged New Glenn's sole active pad, with official assessments indicating over a year for full rebuild amid structural and infrastructure repairs. This incident followed the April 19 NG-3 mission, which achieved booster reuse but ended in an upper-stage anomaly stranding its payload. With launch dates now listed as TBD through at least late 2026 and no alternative pads immediately available, trader consensus favors no additional flights this year despite Blue Origin statements on potential end-of-year resumption using spares and on-site fixes. Historical heavy-lift timelines and ongoing investigations into BE-4 engine performance further support the elevated implied probability against near-term operations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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