Anthropic’s September 2 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, delivering measurable gains in coding, research, and agentic benchmarks at lower cost than the June Fable 5 debut, drives trader consensus toward continued rapid iteration on the Fable series. The brief U.S. export-control suspension of Fable 5 in June, followed by its July redeployment, highlighted regulatory risks that could still affect timelines. Chinese competitor Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 has already overtaken Fable 5 on several design and reasoning leaderboards at roughly one-tenth the price and with open weights, intensifying pressure on Anthropic’s release cadence. Traders watch for the next 5.2+ update amid typical 8–12 week cycles and potential new safeguards or hardware optimizations that could shift market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
19%
December 31
61%
$105 Vol.
October 31
$105 Vol.
19%
December 31
$0 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 2 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, delivering measurable gains in coding, research, and agentic benchmarks at lower cost than the June Fable 5 debut, drives trader consensus toward continued rapid iteration on the Fable series. The brief U.S. export-control suspension of Fable 5 in June, followed by its July redeployment, highlighted regulatory risks that could still affect timelines. Chinese competitor Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 has already overtaken Fable 5 on several design and reasoning leaderboards at roughly one-tenth the price and with open weights, intensifying pressure on Anthropic’s release cadence. Traders watch for the next 5.2+ update amid typical 8–12 week cycles and potential new safeguards or hardware optimizations that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$105Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 2 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, delivering measurable gains in coding, research, and agentic benchmarks at lower cost than the June Fable 5 debut, drives trader consensus toward continued rapid iteration on the Fable series. The brief U.S. export-control suspension of Fable 5 in June, followed by its July redeployment, highlighted regulatory risks that could still affect timelines. Chinese competitor Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 has already overtaken Fable 5 on several design and reasoning leaderboards at roughly one-tenth the price and with open weights, intensifying pressure on Anthropic’s release cadence. Traders watch for the next 5.2+ update amid typical 8–12 week cycles and potential new safeguards or hardware optimizations that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s September 2 launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, delivering measurable gains in coding, research, and agentic benchmarks at lower cost than the June Fable 5 debut, drives trader consensus toward continued rapid iteration on the Fable series. The brief U.S. export-control suspension of Fable 5 in June, followed by its July redeployment, highlighted regulatory risks that could still affect timelines. Chinese competitor Z.ai’s GLM-5.2 has already overtaken Fable 5 on several design and reasoning leaderboards at roughly one-tenth the price and with open weights, intensifying pressure on Anthropic’s release cadence. Traders watch for the next 5.2+ update amid typical 8–12 week cycles and potential new safeguards or hardware optimizations that could shift market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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