Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMiniMax 44%
OpenAI 32%
Google 28%
Amazon 25%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
MiniMax
44%
OpenAI
32%
28%
Amazon
25%
Xiaomi
24%
Z.ai
21%
Moonshot
21%
SpaceXAI
18%
Mistral
16%
Nvidia
16%
ByteDance
15%
Baidu
15%
StepFun
14%
Anthropic
14%
Meta
14%
Tencent
14%
Alibaba
13%
DeepSeek
13%
Thinky
13%
Microsoft
10%
Meituan
9%
MiniMax 44%
OpenAI 32%
Google 28%
Amazon 25%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
44%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
32%
$0 Vol.
28%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
25%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
24%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
21%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
21%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
18%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
16%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
15%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
15%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
14%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
13%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
10%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 topping independent benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in early September 2026, followed closely by OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash. Chinese labs such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4.1-Flash have narrowed the capability gap through efficient mixture-of-experts designs and open-weight releases, pressuring cost and performance metrics. These dynamics, plus Google’s platform integrations and Moonshot’s value positioning, underpin the tight trader consensus around Google and Moonshot at 26% implied probability for third place, while lower odds for Anthropic, OpenAI, and others reflect the fluid ranking environment ahead of November resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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