Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo release by November 1 40%
Prior to August 31 25%
September 7–September 13 24%
August 31–September 6 23%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
25%
August 31–September 6
23%
September 7–September 13
24%
September 14–September 20
23%
September 21–September 27
23%
September 28–October 4
23%
October 5–October 11
23%
October 12–October 18
22%
October 19–October 25
22%
October 26–November 1
23%
No release by November 1
55%
No release by November 1 40%
Prior to August 31 25%
September 7–September 13 24%
August 31–September 6 23%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
$0 Vol.
25%
August 31–September 6
$0 Vol.
23%
September 7–September 13
$0 Vol.
24%
September 14–September 20
$0 Vol.
23%
September 21–September 27
$0 Vol.
23%
September 28–October 4
$0 Vol.
23%
October 5–October 11
$0 Vol.
23%
October 12–October 18
$0 Vol.
22%
October 19–October 25
$0 Vol.
22%
October 26–November 1
$0 Vol.
23%
No release by November 1
$47 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$47Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$47Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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