**Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a strong position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.** Tran flipped the seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow 653-vote margin against then-incumbent Michelle Steel in a race that became one of the costliest House contests that cycle. The district, centered in Orange County areas including Westminster, Garden Grove, and Fullerton, carries a modest Democratic lean (roughly D+3 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index), consistent with a hypothetical 2024 Kamala Harris margin of about four points under the current lines. California's June 2026 nonpartisan primary produced a clear general-election matchup, with Tran securing the top spot at roughly 54 percent while Republican Chuong Vo advanced as the leading GOP candidate. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Tran's incumbency, established fundraising edge, and the limited strength of the Republican field. With roughly three months remaining until Election Day, no major late-breaking developments have emerged to alter the structural advantages favoring the Democratic nominee.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$25,356 Vol.
$25,356 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
12%
$25,356 Vol.
$25,356 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,885 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$11,470 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a strong position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.**
Tran flipped the seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow 653-vote margin against then-incumbent Michelle Steel in a race that became one of the costliest House contests that cycle. The district, centered in Orange County areas including Westminster, Garden Grove, and Fullerton, carries a modest Democratic lean (roughly D+3 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index), consistent with a hypothetical 2024 Kamala Harris margin of about four points under the current lines.
California's June 2026 nonpartisan primary produced a clear general-election matchup, with Tran securing the top spot at roughly 54 percent while Republican Chuong Vo advanced as the leading GOP candidate. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Tran's incumbency, established fundraising edge, and the limited strength of the Republican field. With roughly three months remaining until Election Day, no major late-breaking developments have emerged to alter the structural advantages favoring the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$25,356Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a strong position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.**
Tran flipped the seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow 653-vote margin against then-incumbent Michelle Steel in a race that became one of the costliest House contests that cycle. The district, centered in Orange County areas including Westminster, Garden Grove, and Fullerton, carries a modest Democratic lean (roughly D+3 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index), consistent with a hypothetical 2024 Kamala Harris margin of about four points under the current lines.
California's June 2026 nonpartisan primary produced a clear general-election matchup, with Tran securing the top spot at roughly 54 percent while Republican Chuong Vo advanced as the leading GOP candidate. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Tran's incumbency, established fundraising edge, and the limited strength of the Republican field. With roughly three months remaining until Election Day, no major late-breaking developments have emerged to alter the structural advantages favoring the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,356Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a strong position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election.** Tran flipped the seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow 653-vote margin against then-incumbent Michelle Steel in a race that became one of the costliest House contests that cycle. The district, centered in Orange County areas including Westminster, Garden Grove, and Fullerton, carries a modest Democratic lean (roughly D+3 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index), consistent with a hypothetical 2024 Kamala Harris margin of about four points under the current lines. California's June 2026 nonpartisan primary produced a clear general-election matchup, with Tran securing the top spot at roughly 54 percent while Republican Chuong Vo advanced as the leading GOP candidate. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Tran's incumbency, established fundraising edge, and the limited strength of the Republican field. With roughly three months remaining until Election Day, no major late-breaking developments have emerged to alter the structural advantages favoring the Democratic nominee.
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