Recent final results from Israel's October 27 Knesset election show Likud securing 27 seats as the largest party, with its bloc totaling 53 seats against 48 for the main opposition grouping and a record 19 for Arab lists. This outcome exceeded pre-election polling averages that had projected a narrower or reversed edge for Benjamin Netanyahu's allies. Traders assign near-certainty to Likud as the election winner because the party outperformed expectations in seat allocation and maintains the strongest position to lead coalition talks. Key variables that could still alter the path to government formation include the 61-seat majority threshold, ongoing negotiations amid mutual exclusions between blocs, the Knesset swearing-in on November 10, and any verified irregularities under review by authorities.