China's Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% bands that together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued retail sales, and the prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient manufacturing exports and state-led infrastructure investment provide partial offsets amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions. Recent July credit and money supply data undershot forecasts, reinforcing views that additional fiscal stimulus—flagged after the late-July Politburo meeting—could support sequential momentum without altering the structural growth trajectory. Traders are pricing in modest policy easing effects before the full-year target of 4.5-5.0% comes into sharper focus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 12.1%
4.9-5.2% 2.9%
$26,563 Vol.
$26,563 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
12%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
37%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 12.1%
4.9-5.2% 2.9%
$26,563 Vol.
$26,563 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,623 Vol.
12%
4.3-4.6%
$9,837 Vol.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$7,996 Vol.
37%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 Vol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$899 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% bands that together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued retail sales, and the prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient manufacturing exports and state-led infrastructure investment provide partial offsets amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions. Recent July credit and money supply data undershot forecasts, reinforcing views that additional fiscal stimulus—flagged after the late-July Politburo meeting—could support sequential momentum without altering the structural growth trajectory. Traders are pricing in modest policy easing effects before the full-year target of 4.5-5.0% comes into sharper focus.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$26,563Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina's Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% bands that together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued retail sales, and the prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient manufacturing exports and state-led infrastructure investment provide partial offsets amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions. Recent July credit and money supply data undershot forecasts, reinforcing views that additional fiscal stimulus—flagged after the late-July Politburo meeting—could support sequential momentum without altering the structural growth trajectory. Traders are pricing in modest policy easing effects before the full-year target of 4.5-5.0% comes into sharper focus.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$26,563Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China's Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus and the prior quarter's 5.0%, has anchored trader expectations for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% bands that together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued retail sales, and the prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient manufacturing exports and state-led infrastructure investment provide partial offsets amid elevated energy costs from geopolitical tensions. Recent July credit and money supply data undershot forecasts, reinforcing views that additional fiscal stimulus—flagged after the late-July Politburo meeting—could support sequential momentum without altering the structural growth trajectory. Traders are pricing in modest policy easing effects before the full-year target of 4.5-5.0% comes into sharper focus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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