Traders are heavily favoring the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk from May 18-20, 2026, at an implied probability of 55.5%, reflecting his recent daily posting pace of roughly 15-20 updates amid routine business updates on Tesla and SpaceX. This positions the outcome as the clear frontrunner because short-term historical patterns from early May show moderated activity without major launches or controversies to drive higher volume. The next most likely band, 65-89 at 23.5%, captures potential upside if weekend engagement or breaking news accelerates his output, while sub-40 remains a distant possibility at 16.5% given his established baseline. Upcoming chart updates on platform metrics and any Starship-related announcements could shift momentum before the period closes, underscoring how real-time events influence the skin-in-the-game consensus on X.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui40-64 56%
65-89 24%
<40 17%
90-114 5%
BARU
$45,150 Vol.
BARU
$45,150 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
17%
40-64
56%
65-89
24%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 56%
65-89 24%
<40 17%
90-114 5%
BARU
$45,150 Vol.
BARU
$45,150 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
$2,530 Vol.
17%
40-64
$4,376 Vol.
56%
65-89
$3,032 Vol.
24%
90-114
$5,658 Vol.
5%
115-139
$4,577 Vol.
1%
140-164
$2,721 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,547 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,386 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$6,516 Vol.
<1%
240+
$6,806 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are heavily favoring the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk from May 18-20, 2026, at an implied probability of 55.5%, reflecting his recent daily posting pace of roughly 15-20 updates amid routine business updates on Tesla and SpaceX. This positions the outcome as the clear frontrunner because short-term historical patterns from early May show moderated activity without major launches or controversies to drive higher volume. The next most likely band, 65-89 at 23.5%, captures potential upside if weekend engagement or breaking news accelerates his output, while sub-40 remains a distant possibility at 16.5% given his established baseline. Upcoming chart updates on platform metrics and any Starship-related announcements could shift momentum before the period closes, underscoring how real-time events influence the skin-in-the-game consensus on X.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$45,150Tanggal Berakhir
May 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are heavily favoring the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk from May 18-20, 2026, at an implied probability of 55.5%, reflecting his recent daily posting pace of roughly 15-20 updates amid routine business updates on Tesla and SpaceX. This positions the outcome as the clear frontrunner because short-term historical patterns from early May show moderated activity without major launches or controversies to drive higher volume. The next most likely band, 65-89 at 23.5%, captures potential upside if weekend engagement or breaking news accelerates his output, while sub-40 remains a distant possibility at 16.5% given his established baseline. Upcoming chart updates on platform metrics and any Starship-related announcements could shift momentum before the period closes, underscoring how real-time events influence the skin-in-the-game consensus on X.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$45,150Tanggal Berakhir
May 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskTraders are heavily favoring the 40-64 tweet range for Elon Musk from May 18-20, 2026, at an implied probability of 55.5%, reflecting his recent daily posting pace of roughly 15-20 updates amid routine business updates on Tesla and SpaceX. This positions the outcome as the clear frontrunner because short-term historical patterns from early May show moderated activity without major launches or controversies to drive higher volume. The next most likely band, 65-89 at 23.5%, captures potential upside if weekend engagement or breaking news accelerates his output, while sub-40 remains a distant possibility at 16.5% given his established baseline. Upcoming chart updates on platform metrics and any Starship-related announcements could shift momentum before the period closes, underscoring how real-time events influence the skin-in-the-game consensus on X.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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