Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs the 100-119 X posts range at a near-certain implied probability for Elon Musk's activity from May 5 to May 12, 2026, driven by real-time tallies showing the count already locked in that bin as the window closes today at 12:00 PM ET. Musk's uncharacteristically subdued social media presence this week—amid his high-profile China trip addressing Tesla's Full Self-Driving and robotaxi challenges—has capped output well below his typical 15-20 daily average, with only sporadic posts like a deleted tax quip noted in the final hours. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects precise tracking of main feed posts, but a realistic upset could stem from an unexpected tweet storm tied to breaking Tesla or SpaceX news before cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui100-119 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$10,850,290 Vol.
$10,850,290 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
Yes
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500+
No
100-119 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$10,850,290 Vol.
$10,850,290 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
Yes
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: May 2, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Sumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs the 100-119 X posts range at a near-certain implied probability for Elon Musk's activity from May 5 to May 12, 2026, driven by real-time tallies showing the count already locked in that bin as the window closes today at 12:00 PM ET. Musk's uncharacteristically subdued social media presence this week—amid his high-profile China trip addressing Tesla's Full Self-Driving and robotaxi challenges—has capped output well below his typical 15-20 daily average, with only sporadic posts like a deleted tax quip noted in the final hours. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects precise tracking of main feed posts, but a realistic upset could stem from an unexpected tweet storm tied to breaking Tesla or SpaceX news before cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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