Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Amsterdam on July 14?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 14?
28°C 49%
29°C 34%
27°C 13.4%
30°C 7%
BARU
$24,182 Vol.
BARU
$24,182 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
13%
28°C
49%
29°C
34%
30°C
7%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 49%
29°C 34%
27°C 13.4%
30°C 7%
BARU
$24,182 Vol.
BARU
$24,182 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
23°C or below
$1,328 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,126 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,310 Vol.
1%
26°C
$3,080 Vol.
2%
27°C
$6,227 Vol.
13%
28°C
$2,926 Vol.
49%
29°C
$2,182 Vol.
34%
30°C
$1,524 Vol.
7%
31°C
$2,197 Vol.
1%
32°C
$1,334 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$1,133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$24,182Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,182Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models shows Amsterdam’s July 14 maximum centered on 28–31 °C, with 29–30 °C bands holding the highest market-implied odds because small differences in 850 hPa thermal advection and afternoon boundary-layer mixing can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. A building ridge and southerly flow support modest warming, yet variable cloud timing and sea-breeze influence introduce spread that keeps 28 °C and 31 °C probabilities non-negligible. Updated operational runs and ensemble means expected before resolution will likely narrow the distribution further, as short-range temperature forecasts remain sensitive to these mesoscale factors.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan