Recent forecasts from numerical models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 11, supporting a daytime high near 30–31 °C, which aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 55.5 % for 31 °C and 34.5 % for 30 °C. This outcome sits above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5 °C for the date, consistent with the warmer-than-normal pattern observed across early September 2026 when readings reached the mid-30s. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover are the primary drivers keeping probabilities concentrated in this narrow range, while the small shares assigned to 29 °C or 32 °C+ reflect residual uncertainty in model guidance and potential micro-climate variations at official stations. Updated model runs and observational data releases in the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any late adjustments to peak temperature.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
31°C 56%
30°C 35%
29°C 16%
33°C 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
16%
30°C
35%
31°C
56%
32°C
10%
33°C
16%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 56%
30°C 35%
29°C 16%
33°C 16%
BARU
BARU
Sep 11, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$9 Vol.
16%
30°C
$114 Vol.
35%
31°C
$610 Vol.
56%
32°C
$0 Vol.
10%
33°C
$0 Vol.
16%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from numerical models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 11, supporting a daytime high near 30–31 °C, which aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 55.5 % for 31 °C and 34.5 % for 30 °C. This outcome sits above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5 °C for the date, consistent with the warmer-than-normal pattern observed across early September 2026 when readings reached the mid-30s. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover are the primary drivers keeping probabilities concentrated in this narrow range, while the small shares assigned to 29 °C or 32 °C+ reflect residual uncertainty in model guidance and potential micro-climate variations at official stations. Updated model runs and observational data releases in the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any late adjustments to peak temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$733Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from numerical models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 11, supporting a daytime high near 30–31 °C, which aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 55.5 % for 31 °C and 34.5 % for 30 °C. This outcome sits above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5 °C for the date, consistent with the warmer-than-normal pattern observed across early September 2026 when readings reached the mid-30s. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover are the primary drivers keeping probabilities concentrated in this narrow range, while the small shares assigned to 29 °C or 32 °C+ reflect residual uncertainty in model guidance and potential micro-climate variations at official stations. Updated model runs and observational data releases in the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any late adjustments to peak temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$733Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from numerical models such as GFS indicate clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 11, supporting a daytime high near 30–31 °C, which aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 55.5 % for 31 °C and 34.5 % for 30 °C. This outcome sits above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.5 °C for the date, consistent with the warmer-than-normal pattern observed across early September 2026 when readings reached the mid-30s. Stable high pressure and minimal cloud cover are the primary drivers keeping probabilities concentrated in this narrow range, while the small shares assigned to 29 °C or 32 °C+ reflect residual uncertainty in model guidance and potential micro-climate variations at official stations. Updated model runs and observational data releases in the next 48 hours will provide the next key inputs for traders assessing any late adjustments to peak temperature.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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