Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Moscow on July 14?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 14?
25°C 50%
24°C 30%
26°C 17.8%
23°C 5%
BARU
$16,495 Vol.
BARU
$16,495 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
30%
25°C
50%
26°C
18%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 50%
24°C 30%
26°C 17.8%
23°C 5%
BARU
$16,495 Vol.
BARU
$16,495 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
19°C or below
$3,025 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,470 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,258 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,625 Vol.
2%
23°C
$790 Vol.
5%
24°C
$1,356 Vol.
30%
25°C
$1,197 Vol.
50%
26°C
$1,027 Vol.
18%
27°C
$830 Vol.
1%
28°C
$539 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$378 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$16,495Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,495Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from major models points to a Moscow high near 22–24°C on July 14, aligning with the market’s bunched probabilities around those values. Regional pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow support typical mid-July warmth, yet increasing cloud cover and isolated thunderstorms are expected to limit peak solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of 23–24°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this two-day lead time, with minor shifts in timing of convective activity able to nudge the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs show similar setups rarely exceed 26°C or fall below 20°C in early July, reinforcing the current tight distribution of trader sentiment. Updated model runs tonight will refine the exact peak.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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