Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?
36°C 40%
37°C 28%
35°C 21%
34°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 2, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
9%
34°C
13%
35°C
21%
36°C
40%
37°C
28%
38°C
4%
39°C
4%
40°C or higher
4%
36°C 40%
37°C 28%
35°C 21%
34°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 2, 2026
30°C or below
$115 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$74 Vol.
3%
33°C
$41 Vol.
9%
34°C
$21 Vol.
13%
35°C
$48 Vol.
21%
36°C
$80 Vol.
40%
37°C
$158 Vol.
28%
38°C
$69 Vol.
4%
39°C
$31 Vol.
4%
40°C or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$719Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$719Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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