Trader consensus on the Shanghai temperature market clusters tightly around 34–35°C implied probabilities because short-range forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show a narrow range of possible daily maxima for August 4, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and limited cloud cover. Urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow add a few tenths of a degree to baseline readings, yet model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea breeze introduces enough uncertainty to keep the two leading outcomes within 5 percentage points. Recent ensemble runs have shown minor cooling signals from increased afternoon humidity, preventing stronger consensus on 36°C or higher while supporting the modest probabilities attached to 33°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten or shift these market-implied odds as landfall-adjacent observations refine the forecast.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?
34°C 38%
35°C 33%
33°C 18%
36°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
18%
34°C
38%
35°C
33%
36°C
10%
37°C
2%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 33%
33°C 18%
36°C 10%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$41 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$104 Vol.
1%
31°C
$69 Vol.
2%
32°C
$203 Vol.
4%
33°C
$209 Vol.
18%
34°C
$148 Vol.
38%
35°C
$442 Vol.
33%
36°C
$97 Vol.
10%
37°C
$58 Vol.
2%
38°C
$125 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$61 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Shanghai temperature market clusters tightly around 34–35°C implied probabilities because short-range forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show a narrow range of possible daily maxima for August 4, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and limited cloud cover. Urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow add a few tenths of a degree to baseline readings, yet model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea breeze introduces enough uncertainty to keep the two leading outcomes within 5 percentage points. Recent ensemble runs have shown minor cooling signals from increased afternoon humidity, preventing stronger consensus on 36°C or higher while supporting the modest probabilities attached to 33°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten or shift these market-implied odds as landfall-adjacent observations refine the forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,558Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Shanghai temperature market clusters tightly around 34–35°C implied probabilities because short-range forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show a narrow range of possible daily maxima for August 4, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and limited cloud cover. Urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow add a few tenths of a degree to baseline readings, yet model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea breeze introduces enough uncertainty to keep the two leading outcomes within 5 percentage points. Recent ensemble runs have shown minor cooling signals from increased afternoon humidity, preventing stronger consensus on 36°C or higher while supporting the modest probabilities attached to 33°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten or shift these market-implied odds as landfall-adjacent observations refine the forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,558Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Shanghai temperature market clusters tightly around 34–35°C implied probabilities because short-range forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show a narrow range of possible daily maxima for August 4, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and limited cloud cover. Urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow add a few tenths of a degree to baseline readings, yet model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any sea breeze introduces enough uncertainty to keep the two leading outcomes within 5 percentage points. Recent ensemble runs have shown minor cooling signals from increased afternoon humidity, preventing stronger consensus on 36°C or higher while supporting the modest probabilities attached to 33°C. Updated high-resolution guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten or shift these market-implied odds as landfall-adjacent observations refine the forecast.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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