Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 21?
18°C 42%
17°C 30%
19°C 21%
16°C 7.6%
$18,167 Vol.
$18,167 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
8%
17°C
30%
18°C
42%
19°C
21%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 42%
17°C 30%
19°C 21%
16°C 7.6%
$18,167 Vol.
$18,167 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
12°C or below
$208 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$694 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,175 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,422 Vol.
8%
17°C
$3,799 Vol.
30%
18°C
$2,064 Vol.
42%
19°C
$3,143 Vol.
21%
20°C
$2,200 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$1,348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$18,167Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,167Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a cool maritime air mass and extensive cloud cover over central Poland as the dominant factors capping Warsaw's July 21 maximum near 18–19 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Persistent northeasterly flow and possible light precipitation are expected to limit solar heating and suppress afternoon peaks compared to typical July climatology of 23–24 °C. Minor differences between 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes hinge on the precise timing of any partial clearing or boundary-layer mixing in the final model runs, while slight upside to 20 °C would require faster advection of warmer air than currently indicated. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread against inherent short-range forecast uncertainty two days out.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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