**Forecast models and observational trends position 15°C as the leading outcome for Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 21, 2026, with market-implied odds of 48.5%.** Multiple authoritative sources, including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced guidance, and regional meteorological services, converge on a daytime maximum near 15°C under cloudy skies with showers and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. This reflects a cooler air mass advecting from the west behind a frontal boundary, suppressing solar heating and limiting afternoon warming compared to the preceding days’ 21–23°C readings. Supporting context includes consistent model runs showing overnight lows near 10–12°C and persistent cloud cover (often 80–100%) that reduces the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average daily maxima around 16–18°C, so the current setup represents a modest negative anomaly driven by synoptic-scale dynamics rather than extreme blocking. Nearby probabilities for 14°C (23.5%) and 16°C (25.0%) capture residual uncertainty from minor variations in cloud timing, precipitation intensity, or slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weight the strong multi-model consensus and recent surface observations more heavily than outlier warmer scenarios, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 14–16°C while assigning very low odds to extremes. Updated forecast runs or real-time surface reports on September 20–21 could further refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 21?
15°C 49%
16°C 25%
14°C 24%
17°C 4%
BARU
$10,221 Vol.
BARU
$10,221 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
24%
15°C
49%
16°C
25%
17°C
4%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 49%
16°C 25%
14°C 24%
17°C 4%
BARU
$10,221 Vol.
BARU
$10,221 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
10°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$211 Vol.
1%
12°C
$56 Vol.
2%
13°C
$285 Vol.
3%
14°C
$3,405 Vol.
24%
15°C
$1,227 Vol.
49%
16°C
$3,796 Vol.
25%
17°C
$321 Vol.
4%
18°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$191 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends position 15°C as the leading outcome for Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 21, 2026, with market-implied odds of 48.5%.** Multiple authoritative sources, including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced guidance, and regional meteorological services, converge on a daytime maximum near 15°C under cloudy skies with showers and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. This reflects a cooler air mass advecting from the west behind a frontal boundary, suppressing solar heating and limiting afternoon warming compared to the preceding days’ 21–23°C readings.
Supporting context includes consistent model runs showing overnight lows near 10–12°C and persistent cloud cover (often 80–100%) that reduces the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average daily maxima around 16–18°C, so the current setup represents a modest negative anomaly driven by synoptic-scale dynamics rather than extreme blocking. Nearby probabilities for 14°C (23.5%) and 16°C (25.0%) capture residual uncertainty from minor variations in cloud timing, precipitation intensity, or slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing.
Traders appear to weight the strong multi-model consensus and recent surface observations more heavily than outlier warmer scenarios, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 14–16°C while assigning very low odds to extremes. Updated forecast runs or real-time surface reports on September 20–21 could further refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,221Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends position 15°C as the leading outcome for Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 21, 2026, with market-implied odds of 48.5%.** Multiple authoritative sources, including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced guidance, and regional meteorological services, converge on a daytime maximum near 15°C under cloudy skies with showers and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. This reflects a cooler air mass advecting from the west behind a frontal boundary, suppressing solar heating and limiting afternoon warming compared to the preceding days’ 21–23°C readings.
Supporting context includes consistent model runs showing overnight lows near 10–12°C and persistent cloud cover (often 80–100%) that reduces the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average daily maxima around 16–18°C, so the current setup represents a modest negative anomaly driven by synoptic-scale dynamics rather than extreme blocking. Nearby probabilities for 14°C (23.5%) and 16°C (25.0%) capture residual uncertainty from minor variations in cloud timing, precipitation intensity, or slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing.
Traders appear to weight the strong multi-model consensus and recent surface observations more heavily than outlier warmer scenarios, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 14–16°C while assigning very low odds to extremes. Updated forecast runs or real-time surface reports on September 20–21 could further refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,221Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observational trends position 15°C as the leading outcome for Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 21, 2026, with market-implied odds of 48.5%.** Multiple authoritative sources, including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced guidance, and regional meteorological services, converge on a daytime maximum near 15°C under cloudy skies with showers and moderate westerly winds of 15–25 km/h. This reflects a cooler air mass advecting from the west behind a frontal boundary, suppressing solar heating and limiting afternoon warming compared to the preceding days’ 21–23°C readings. Supporting context includes consistent model runs showing overnight lows near 10–12°C and persistent cloud cover (often 80–100%) that reduces the diurnal temperature range. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average daily maxima around 16–18°C, so the current setup represents a modest negative anomaly driven by synoptic-scale dynamics rather than extreme blocking. Nearby probabilities for 14°C (23.5%) and 16°C (25.0%) capture residual uncertainty from minor variations in cloud timing, precipitation intensity, or slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weight the strong multi-model consensus and recent surface observations more heavily than outlier warmer scenarios, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 14–16°C while assigning very low odds to extremes. Updated forecast runs or real-time surface reports on September 20–21 could further refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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