Recent seismic data and the low baseline rate of large events position zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes for the June 15–21 window. USGS records show roughly one to two such quakes occur globally per week on average amid Poisson-distributed background seismicity, with trader consensus at 47% for zero and 33% for one reflecting that typical cadence. The June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao event and its aftershocks, which included multiple 6.5+ shocks, have temporarily elevated activity along the Philippine trench, yet aftershock decay and the absence of other major sequences or swarm indicators support the current odds distribution. Model consensus from global monitoring indicates no strong forecast signals for additional large events in the immediate term, though any new M7+ mainshock would rapidly shift probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?
0 47%
1 33%
2 14%
3 3.6%
BARU
BARU
Jun 21, 2026
0
47%
1
33%
2
14%
3
4%
4
2%
5
2%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 33%
2 14%
3 3.6%
BARU
BARU
Jun 21, 2026
0
$0 Vol.
47%
1
$0 Vol.
33%
2
$10 Vol.
14%
3
$117 Vol.
4%
4
$1,223 Vol.
2%
5
$154 Vol.
2%
>5
$168 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic data and the low baseline rate of large events position zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes for the June 15–21 window. USGS records show roughly one to two such quakes occur globally per week on average amid Poisson-distributed background seismicity, with trader consensus at 47% for zero and 33% for one reflecting that typical cadence. The June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao event and its aftershocks, which included multiple 6.5+ shocks, have temporarily elevated activity along the Philippine trench, yet aftershock decay and the absence of other major sequences or swarm indicators support the current odds distribution. Model consensus from global monitoring indicates no strong forecast signals for additional large events in the immediate term, though any new M7+ mainshock would rapidly shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,671Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic data and the low baseline rate of large events position zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes for the June 15–21 window. USGS records show roughly one to two such quakes occur globally per week on average amid Poisson-distributed background seismicity, with trader consensus at 47% for zero and 33% for one reflecting that typical cadence. The June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao event and its aftershocks, which included multiple 6.5+ shocks, have temporarily elevated activity along the Philippine trench, yet aftershock decay and the absence of other major sequences or swarm indicators support the current odds distribution. Model consensus from global monitoring indicates no strong forecast signals for additional large events in the immediate term, though any new M7+ mainshock would rapidly shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,671Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent seismic data and the low baseline rate of large events position zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes for the June 15–21 window. USGS records show roughly one to two such quakes occur globally per week on average amid Poisson-distributed background seismicity, with trader consensus at 47% for zero and 33% for one reflecting that typical cadence. The June 8 magnitude 7.8 Mindanao event and its aftershocks, which included multiple 6.5+ shocks, have temporarily elevated activity along the Philippine trench, yet aftershock decay and the absence of other major sequences or swarm indicators support the current odds distribution. Model consensus from global monitoring indicates no strong forecast signals for additional large events in the immediate term, though any new M7+ mainshock would rapidly shift probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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