**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election or lost primaries ahead of the 2026 cycle, aligning with the strong trader consensus at that outcome.** Among the 22 Republican Class 2 seats up for election, confirmed departures include retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), plus primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas). These announcements, mostly from 2025 through mid-2026, have stabilized the count with limited subsequent shifts. No additional major Republican retirements or losses have emerged in recent weeks, keeping probabilities concentrated on seven while smaller shares reflect residual uncertainty over late primaries or unexpected decisions. This distribution captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verifiable Senate departures through the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
7 78%
11 8.3%
9 4.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
4%
10
2%
11
8%
12+
1%
7 78%
11 8.3%
9 4.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,967 Vol.
78%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
4%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
8%
12+
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election or lost primaries ahead of the 2026 cycle, aligning with the strong trader consensus at that outcome.** Among the 22 Republican Class 2 seats up for election, confirmed departures include retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), plus primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas). These announcements, mostly from 2025 through mid-2026, have stabilized the count with limited subsequent shifts. No additional major Republican retirements or losses have emerged in recent weeks, keeping probabilities concentrated on seven while smaller shares reflect residual uncertainty over late primaries or unexpected decisions. This distribution captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verifiable Senate departures through the resolution window.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,009Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election or lost primaries ahead of the 2026 cycle, aligning with the strong trader consensus at that outcome.** Among the 22 Republican Class 2 seats up for election, confirmed departures include retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), plus primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas). These announcements, mostly from 2025 through mid-2026, have stabilized the count with limited subsequent shifts. No additional major Republican retirements or losses have emerged in recent weeks, keeping probabilities concentrated on seven while smaller shares reflect residual uncertainty over late primaries or unexpected decisions. This distribution captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verifiable Senate departures through the resolution window.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,009Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election or lost primaries ahead of the 2026 cycle, aligning with the strong trader consensus at that outcome.** Among the 22 Republican Class 2 seats up for election, confirmed departures include retirements by figures such as Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Steve Daines (Montana), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), and Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), plus primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas). These announcements, mostly from 2025 through mid-2026, have stabilized the count with limited subsequent shifts. No additional major Republican retirements or losses have emerged in recent weeks, keeping probabilities concentrated on seven while smaller shares reflect residual uncertainty over late primaries or unexpected decisions. This distribution captures the wisdom of crowds assessing verifiable Senate departures through the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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