**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached approximately 23–25 members as of mid-August 2026, placing the count near the boundary between the two leading market bins.** Long-serving members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, often citing age, institutional fatigue, or opportunities to run for Senate or governor. Additional departures stem from members seeking higher office in states with open Senate or gubernatorial contests, while a smaller number reflect primary challenges or redistricting effects. The narrow spread between the 20–23 and 24–27 bins reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further announcements will occur before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Trader consensus tracks these developments closely because each new retirement shifts the total and because historical patterns show that the final tally can move several seats in the final months of a cycle. Additional high-profile exits or confirmation that the list is largely complete would likely widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui20–23 44.3%
24–27 36%
28–31 18.2%
<20 7.6%
$44,551 Vol.
$44,551 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
8%
20–23
44%
24–27
36%
28–31
11%
32–35
7%
36–39
1%
40+
1%
20–23 44.3%
24–27 36%
28–31 18.2%
<20 7.6%
$44,551 Vol.
$44,551 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,793 Vol.
8%
20–23
$9,759 Vol.
44%
24–27
$7,530 Vol.
36%
28–31
$1,924 Vol.
11%
32–35
$4,526 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,348 Vol.
1%
40+
$1,671 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached approximately 23–25 members as of mid-August 2026, placing the count near the boundary between the two leading market bins.** Long-serving members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, often citing age, institutional fatigue, or opportunities to run for Senate or governor. Additional departures stem from members seeking higher office in states with open Senate or gubernatorial contests, while a smaller number reflect primary challenges or redistricting effects.
The narrow spread between the 20–23 and 24–27 bins reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further announcements will occur before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Trader consensus tracks these developments closely because each new retirement shifts the total and because historical patterns show that the final tally can move several seats in the final months of a cycle. Additional high-profile exits or confirmation that the list is largely complete would likely widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$44,551Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached approximately 23–25 members as of mid-August 2026, placing the count near the boundary between the two leading market bins.** Long-serving members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, often citing age, institutional fatigue, or opportunities to run for Senate or governor. Additional departures stem from members seeking higher office in states with open Senate or gubernatorial contests, while a smaller number reflect primary challenges or redistricting effects.
The narrow spread between the 20–23 and 24–27 bins reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further announcements will occur before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Trader consensus tracks these developments closely because each new retirement shifts the total and because historical patterns show that the final tally can move several seats in the final months of a cycle. Additional high-profile exits or confirmation that the list is largely complete would likely widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,551Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached approximately 23–25 members as of mid-August 2026, placing the count near the boundary between the two leading market bins.** Long-serving members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, often citing age, institutional fatigue, or opportunities to run for Senate or governor. Additional departures stem from members seeking higher office in states with open Senate or gubernatorial contests, while a smaller number reflect primary challenges or redistricting effects. The narrow spread between the 20–23 and 24–27 bins reflects ongoing uncertainty over whether further announcements will occur before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Trader consensus tracks these developments closely because each new retirement shifts the total and because historical patterns show that the final tally can move several seats in the final months of a cycle. Additional high-profile exits or confirmation that the list is largely complete would likely widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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