As of mid-August 2026, trader consensus centers on 20–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting roughly two dozen confirmed announcements including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and others citing tenure, redistricting effects, or bids for governor or Senate seats. This pace aligns with elevated early-cycle turnover seen in both parties, driven by institutional fatigue and opportunities outside the chamber, though Democrats account for a smaller share than Republicans among total departures. The narrow spread between the leading brackets stems from uncertainty over additional announcements before filing deadlines and primary filing windows, alongside variables such as potential primary challenges or shifts in member calculations amid the midterm environment. Further retirements or withdrawals from open-seat pursuits could widen separation in either direction, while stable conditions through fall would likely anchor outcomes near current levels.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui20–23 39.8%
24–27 39%
28–31 18.2%
<20 7.6%
$44,509 Vol.
$44,509 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
8%
20–23
40%
24–27
39%
28–31
13%
32–35
7%
36–39
1%
40+
1%
20–23 39.8%
24–27 39%
28–31 18.2%
<20 7.6%
$44,509 Vol.
$44,509 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,793 Vol.
8%
20–23
$9,735 Vol.
40%
24–27
$7,512 Vol.
39%
28–31
$1,924 Vol.
13%
32–35
$4,526 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,348 Vol.
1%
40+
$1,671 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, trader consensus centers on 20–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting roughly two dozen confirmed announcements including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and others citing tenure, redistricting effects, or bids for governor or Senate seats. This pace aligns with elevated early-cycle turnover seen in both parties, driven by institutional fatigue and opportunities outside the chamber, though Democrats account for a smaller share than Republicans among total departures. The narrow spread between the leading brackets stems from uncertainty over additional announcements before filing deadlines and primary filing windows, alongside variables such as potential primary challenges or shifts in member calculations amid the midterm environment. Further retirements or withdrawals from open-seat pursuits could widen separation in either direction, while stable conditions through fall would likely anchor outcomes near current levels.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$44,509Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, trader consensus centers on 20–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting roughly two dozen confirmed announcements including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and others citing tenure, redistricting effects, or bids for governor or Senate seats. This pace aligns with elevated early-cycle turnover seen in both parties, driven by institutional fatigue and opportunities outside the chamber, though Democrats account for a smaller share than Republicans among total departures. The narrow spread between the leading brackets stems from uncertainty over additional announcements before filing deadlines and primary filing windows, alongside variables such as potential primary challenges or shifts in member calculations amid the midterm environment. Further retirements or withdrawals from open-seat pursuits could widen separation in either direction, while stable conditions through fall would likely anchor outcomes near current levels.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,509Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, trader consensus centers on 20–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting roughly two dozen confirmed announcements including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and others citing tenure, redistricting effects, or bids for governor or Senate seats. This pace aligns with elevated early-cycle turnover seen in both parties, driven by institutional fatigue and opportunities outside the chamber, though Democrats account for a smaller share than Republicans among total departures. The narrow spread between the leading brackets stems from uncertainty over additional announcements before filing deadlines and primary filing windows, alongside variables such as potential primary challenges or shifts in member calculations amid the midterm environment. Further retirements or withdrawals from open-seat pursuits could widen separation in either direction, while stable conditions through fall would likely anchor outcomes near current levels.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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