Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 95% implied probability for the Republican nominee to prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Paul Gosar secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky did the same on her side. The district delivered more than 30-point margins for Republican candidates in the prior cycle, consistent with its rural and conservative voter base across much of the state. This historical performance, combined with the absence of competitive primaries or notable recent developments that would alter the balance, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still shift probabilities before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$18,914 Vol.
$18,914 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$18,914 Vol.
$18,914 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,146 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$8,768 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 95% implied probability for the Republican nominee to prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Paul Gosar secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky did the same on her side. The district delivered more than 30-point margins for Republican candidates in the prior cycle, consistent with its rural and conservative voter base across much of the state. This historical performance, combined with the absence of competitive primaries or notable recent developments that would alter the balance, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still shift probabilities before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$18,914Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 95% implied probability for the Republican nominee to prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Paul Gosar secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky did the same on her side. The district delivered more than 30-point margins for Republican candidates in the prior cycle, consistent with its rural and conservative voter base across much of the state. This historical performance, combined with the absence of competitive primaries or notable recent developments that would alter the balance, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still shift probabilities before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,914Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 95% implied probability for the Republican nominee to prevail in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Paul Gosar secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky did the same on her side. The district delivered more than 30-point margins for Republican candidates in the prior cycle, consistent with its rural and conservative voter base across much of the state. This historical performance, combined with the absence of competitive primaries or notable recent developments that would alter the balance, underpins trader consensus. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still shift probabilities before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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