Recent above-average typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, including multiple confirmed landfalls in China during July and early August such as Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, has elevated trader expectations toward 6–8 or more total events for 2026. China’s National Climate Center forecasts 24–26 tropical cyclones forming overall, with 7–9 striking the mainland—above the long-term average—driven by warmer sea surface temperatures, favorable steering patterns favoring westward or northwestward tracks, and El Niño-influenced conditions shifting activity toward eastern and southern coastal provinces. Model consensus and ongoing peak-season monitoring through fall will refine these implied probabilities as additional systems develop.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
5 39%
6 37%
7 28%
8 26%
BARU
BARU
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
3%
5
25%
6
31%
7
21%
8
26%
Greater than 8
40%
5 39%
6 37%
7 28%
8 26%
BARU
BARU
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$299 Vol.
3%
5
$145 Vol.
25%
6
$313 Vol.
31%
7
$245 Vol.
21%
8
$90 Vol.
26%
Greater than 8
$169 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent above-average typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, including multiple confirmed landfalls in China during July and early August such as Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, has elevated trader expectations toward 6–8 or more total events for 2026. China’s National Climate Center forecasts 24–26 tropical cyclones forming overall, with 7–9 striking the mainland—above the long-term average—driven by warmer sea surface temperatures, favorable steering patterns favoring westward or northwestward tracks, and El Niño-influenced conditions shifting activity toward eastern and southern coastal provinces. Model consensus and ongoing peak-season monitoring through fall will refine these implied probabilities as additional systems develop.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,261Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent above-average typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, including multiple confirmed landfalls in China during July and early August such as Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, has elevated trader expectations toward 6–8 or more total events for 2026. China’s National Climate Center forecasts 24–26 tropical cyclones forming overall, with 7–9 striking the mainland—above the long-term average—driven by warmer sea surface temperatures, favorable steering patterns favoring westward or northwestward tracks, and El Niño-influenced conditions shifting activity toward eastern and southern coastal provinces. Model consensus and ongoing peak-season monitoring through fall will refine these implied probabilities as additional systems develop.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$1,261Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent above-average typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, including multiple confirmed landfalls in China during July and early August such as Maysak, Bavi, Noul, and Dolphin, has elevated trader expectations toward 6–8 or more total events for 2026. China’s National Climate Center forecasts 24–26 tropical cyclones forming overall, with 7–9 striking the mainland—above the long-term average—driven by warmer sea surface temperatures, favorable steering patterns favoring westward or northwestward tracks, and El Niño-influenced conditions shifting activity toward eastern and southern coastal provinces. Model consensus and ongoing peak-season monitoring through fall will refine these implied probabilities as additional systems develop.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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