US and Israeli airstrikes since late 2024, including the 2025 Midnight Hammer operation and recent 2026 campaigns, have damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and Isfahan complex, delaying weaponization efforts despite IAEA reports of a 1-3 month breakout time for fissile material as of May 2026. Intelligence assessments confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, with no verified progress toward testing amid ongoing war, sanctions, and shaky ceasefire. Diplomatic talks, including Iran's rejected five-year enrichment suspension proposal and upcoming Vienna negotiations for a potential US-Iran nuclear memo, further reduce escalation risks before 2027, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% for no test.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$192,049 Vol.
$192,049 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,049 Vol.
$192,049 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes since late 2024, including the 2025 Midnight Hammer operation and recent 2026 campaigns, have damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and Isfahan complex, delaying weaponization efforts despite IAEA reports of a 1-3 month breakout time for fissile material as of May 2026. Intelligence assessments confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, with no verified progress toward testing amid ongoing war, sanctions, and shaky ceasefire. Diplomatic talks, including Iran's rejected five-year enrichment suspension proposal and upcoming Vienna negotiations for a potential US-Iran nuclear memo, further reduce escalation risks before 2027, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% for no test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$192,049Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes since late 2024, including the 2025 Midnight Hammer operation and recent 2026 campaigns, have damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and Isfahan complex, delaying weaponization efforts despite IAEA reports of a 1-3 month breakout time for fissile material as of May 2026. Intelligence assessments confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, with no verified progress toward testing amid ongoing war, sanctions, and shaky ceasefire. Diplomatic talks, including Iran's rejected five-year enrichment suspension proposal and upcoming Vienna negotiations for a potential US-Iran nuclear memo, further reduce escalation risks before 2027, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% for no test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$192,049Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes since late 2024, including the 2025 Midnight Hammer operation and recent 2026 campaigns, have damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz's pilot enrichment plant and Isfahan complex, delaying weaponization efforts despite IAEA reports of a 1-3 month breakout time for fissile material as of May 2026. Intelligence assessments confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, with no verified progress toward testing amid ongoing war, sanctions, and shaky ceasefire. Diplomatic talks, including Iran's rejected five-year enrichment suspension proposal and upcoming Vienna negotiations for a potential US-Iran nuclear memo, further reduce escalation risks before 2027, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% for no test.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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