Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and setting back any potential weaponization timeline by up to a year according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the attacks, per official statements, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note continued verification challenges but no evidence of new weapon-related activities or testing preparations. This infrastructure degradation and diplomatic pressure underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could occur if negotiations collapse, Iran accelerates covert reconstitution of capabilities, or undetected stockpiles enable rapid breakout.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% peluang
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and setting back any potential weaponization timeline by up to a year according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the attacks, per official statements, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note continued verification challenges but no evidence of new weapon-related activities or testing preparations. This infrastructure degradation and diplomatic pressure underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could occur if negotiations collapse, Iran accelerates covert reconstitution of capabilities, or undetected stockpiles enable rapid breakout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,407Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and setting back any potential weaponization timeline by up to a year according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the attacks, per official statements, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note continued verification challenges but no evidence of new weapon-related activities or testing preparations. This infrastructure degradation and diplomatic pressure underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could occur if negotiations collapse, Iran accelerates covert reconstitution of capabilities, or undetected stockpiles enable rapid breakout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,407Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and setting back any potential weaponization timeline by up to a year according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment since the attacks, per official statements, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note continued verification challenges but no evidence of new weapon-related activities or testing preparations. This infrastructure degradation and diplomatic pressure underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. Shifts could occur if negotiations collapse, Iran accelerates covert reconstitution of capabilities, or undetected stockpiles enable rapid breakout.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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