Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not develop nuclear weapons, have sharply constrained Tehran's enrichment capacity and weaponization pathways. IAEA reports through mid-2026 show limited verifiable activity at damaged sites such as Natanz, with inspectors noting restricted access and no confirmed progress toward a testable device. Ongoing diplomatic talks in July focused on regional issues and potential limits further reinforce trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027. High consensus around the 95.5% probability for "No" reflects these verified disruptions and Iran's public commitments. Potential shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at underground sites, collapse of current negotiations, or changes in Iranian leadership priorities.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% peluang
$248,968 Vol.
$248,968 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% peluang
$248,968 Vol.
$248,968 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not develop nuclear weapons, have sharply constrained Tehran's enrichment capacity and weaponization pathways. IAEA reports through mid-2026 show limited verifiable activity at damaged sites such as Natanz, with inspectors noting restricted access and no confirmed progress toward a testable device. Ongoing diplomatic talks in July focused on regional issues and potential limits further reinforce trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027. High consensus around the 95.5% probability for "No" reflects these verified disruptions and Iran's public commitments. Potential shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at underground sites, collapse of current negotiations, or changes in Iranian leadership priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$248,968Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not develop nuclear weapons, have sharply constrained Tehran's enrichment capacity and weaponization pathways. IAEA reports through mid-2026 show limited verifiable activity at damaged sites such as Natanz, with inspectors noting restricted access and no confirmed progress toward a testable device. Ongoing diplomatic talks in July focused on regional issues and potential limits further reinforce trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027. High consensus around the 95.5% probability for "No" reflects these verified disruptions and Iran's public commitments. Potential shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at underground sites, collapse of current negotiations, or changes in Iranian leadership priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$248,968Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not develop nuclear weapons, have sharply constrained Tehran's enrichment capacity and weaponization pathways. IAEA reports through mid-2026 show limited verifiable activity at damaged sites such as Natanz, with inspectors noting restricted access and no confirmed progress toward a testable device. Ongoing diplomatic talks in July focused on regional issues and potential limits further reinforce trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027. High consensus around the 95.5% probability for "No" reflects these verified disruptions and Iran's public commitments. Potential shifts could still arise from undetected reconstruction at underground sites, collapse of current negotiations, or changes in Iranian leadership priorities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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