Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape assessments of airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities temporarily closed and reopened civilian airspace multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following earlier short-notice disruptions, such as a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile. Regulators including EASA maintain elevated risk advisories due to potential strikes or actions by Hezbollah and other proxies, while international carriers limit operations. Trader consensus on near-term closure probabilities reflects this volatility and the possibility of rapid escalations tied to diplomatic or military developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$27,277,920 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
3%
September 30
12%
$27,277,920 Vol.
August 31
$1,245,724 Vol.
3%
September 30
$316 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape assessments of airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities temporarily closed and reopened civilian airspace multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following earlier short-notice disruptions, such as a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile. Regulators including EASA maintain elevated risk advisories due to potential strikes or actions by Hezbollah and other proxies, while international carriers limit operations. Trader consensus on near-term closure probabilities reflects this volatility and the possibility of rapid escalations tied to diplomatic or military developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,277,920Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape assessments of airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities temporarily closed and reopened civilian airspace multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following earlier short-notice disruptions, such as a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile. Regulators including EASA maintain elevated risk advisories due to potential strikes or actions by Hezbollah and other proxies, while international carriers limit operations. Trader consensus on near-term closure probabilities reflects this volatility and the possibility of rapid escalations tied to diplomatic or military developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,277,920Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape assessments of airspace closure risks. Israeli authorities temporarily closed and reopened civilian airspace multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following earlier short-notice disruptions, such as a June interception of a Yemen-launched missile. Regulators including EASA maintain elevated risk advisories due to potential strikes or actions by Hezbollah and other proxies, while international carriers limit operations. Trader consensus on near-term closure probabilities reflects this volatility and the possibility of rapid escalations tied to diplomatic or military developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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