**Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (55.5%) to fewer than five posts from the official Khamenei account(s) during August 11–18, 2026, reflecting the account’s historically low posting volume and the absence of major scheduled diplomatic, religious, or conflict-related triggers in that narrow window.** Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader following the latter’s death in early 2026, maintains an official presence on X through @khamenei_ir and related handles, but activity has remained sporadic amid ongoing regional tensions and his reported recovery from injuries sustained earlier in the year. Recent months show intermittent statements on resistance issues, Strait of Hormuz leverage, and retaliatory messaging rather than daily updates, consistent with institutional communication patterns that prioritize official pronouncements over frequent social media engagement. With no imminent high-profile summits, elections, or escalation deadlines falling inside the resolution period, markets price in limited output unless a sudden diplomatic or security development prompts additional statements. Higher bins such as 15–19 posts receive secondary support (23.0%) only if an unforeseen event cluster materializes.