Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?
26°C 38%
27°C 35%
25°C 22%
24°C 8.9%
BARU
BARU
Jul 14, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
17%
25°C
30%
26°C
38%
27°C
28%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 38%
27°C 35%
25°C 22%
24°C 8.9%
BARU
BARU
Jul 14, 2026
21°C or below
$387 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$138 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$653 Vol.
1%
24°C
$517 Vol.
17%
25°C
$808 Vol.
30%
26°C
$588 Vol.
38%
27°C
$1,202 Vol.
28%
28°C
$1,395 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,727 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$699 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$8,440Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,440Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to overnight lows near 26°C on July 14 amid persistent monsoon moisture, high humidity near 80-90%, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This keeps the 25–26°C bins tightly matched at over 69% combined implied probability, with 27°C a close third, as typical July climatology (average minimum ~26–27°C) is tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress temperature drops below 25°C. The HKO’s July–September seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures provides the broader anchor, while urban heat-island effects and any last-minute tropical disturbance tracks remain the key variables that could shift resolution toward warmer or cooler outcomes as the 48-hour forecast window narrows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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