Recent April 2026 CPI data, which posted a 0.6 percent month-over-month gain and lifted the year-over-year rate to 3.8 percent, anchors trader expectations for May. Elevated energy costs stemming from the Iran-related oil shock continue to dominate price pressures, though partial stabilization in crude has tempered upside risks and kept the 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent monthly outcomes in a tight contest at 38.5 percent and 35.5 percent implied probability. Core measures rose more moderately at 0.4 percent month-over-month, supporting views that second-round effects remain contained. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether shelter and services inflation will offset any energy moderation ahead of the June 10 release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.5% 36%
0.6% 31%
0.4% 13%
0.3% 9.8%
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
5%
0.3%
12%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
36%
0.6%
31%
0.7%
9%
0.8%
4%
≥0.9%
6%
0.5% 36%
0.6% 31%
0.4% 13%
0.3% 9.8%
≤0.1%
4%
0.2%
5%
0.3%
12%
0.4%
13%
0.5%
36%
0.6%
31%
0.7%
9%
0.8%
4%
≥0.9%
6%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data, which posted a 0.6 percent month-over-month gain and lifted the year-over-year rate to 3.8 percent, anchors trader expectations for May. Elevated energy costs stemming from the Iran-related oil shock continue to dominate price pressures, though partial stabilization in crude has tempered upside risks and kept the 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent monthly outcomes in a tight contest at 38.5 percent and 35.5 percent implied probability. Core measures rose more moderately at 0.4 percent month-over-month, supporting views that second-round effects remain contained. The closely matched odds reflect uncertainty over whether shelter and services inflation will offset any energy moderation ahead of the June 10 release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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