The district’s entrenched Democratic lean, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and consistent 80%+ margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 95.9% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s primary defeat by Darializa Avila Chevalier in June has not altered the seat’s fundamentals, as the open race remains rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and draws minimal Republican investment or polling attention. Historical turnout patterns in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx further reinforce limited crossover potential. A credible Republican surge would require either an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a national political realignment of historic scale, neither of which appears imminent based on current indicators.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNY-13 House Election Winner
NY-13 House Election Winner
$39,522 Vol.
$39,522 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$39,522 Vol.
$39,522 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,078 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$12,445 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s entrenched Democratic lean, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and consistent 80%+ margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 95.9% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s primary defeat by Darializa Avila Chevalier in June has not altered the seat’s fundamentals, as the open race remains rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and draws minimal Republican investment or polling attention. Historical turnout patterns in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx further reinforce limited crossover potential. A credible Republican surge would require either an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a national political realignment of historic scale, neither of which appears imminent based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,522Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s entrenched Democratic lean, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and consistent 80%+ margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 95.9% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s primary defeat by Darializa Avila Chevalier in June has not altered the seat’s fundamentals, as the open race remains rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and draws minimal Republican investment or polling attention. Historical turnout patterns in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx further reinforce limited crossover potential. A credible Republican surge would require either an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a national political realignment of historic scale, neither of which appears imminent based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,522Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s entrenched Democratic lean, with a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and consistent 80%+ margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins the 95.9% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat’s primary defeat by Darializa Avila Chevalier in June has not altered the seat’s fundamentals, as the open race remains rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters and draws minimal Republican investment or polling attention. Historical turnout patterns in Upper Manhattan and the Northwest Bronx further reinforce limited crossover potential. A credible Republican surge would require either an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a national political realignment of historic scale, neither of which appears imminent based on current indicators.
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