Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 81 percent of the vote, positioning the GOP to retain Kansas's 4th congressional district. The south-central Kansas seat has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles, including a 65 percent margin for Estes in 2024, reflecting its partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Katy Tyndell emerged as the Democratic nominee after her primary, but the general election on November 3 remains a low-competition contest under current conditions. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects the district's structural advantages and absence of major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns suggest these remain low-probability shifts.
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KS-04 House Election Winner
$63,855 Vol.
$63,855 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$63,855 Vol.
$63,855 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$35,588 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$28,266 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 81 percent of the vote, positioning the GOP to retain Kansas's 4th congressional district. The south-central Kansas seat has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles, including a 65 percent margin for Estes in 2024, reflecting its partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Katy Tyndell emerged as the Democratic nominee after her primary, but the general election on November 3 remains a low-competition contest under current conditions. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects the district's structural advantages and absence of major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns suggest these remain low-probability shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$63,855Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 81 percent of the vote, positioning the GOP to retain Kansas's 4th congressional district. The south-central Kansas seat has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles, including a 65 percent margin for Estes in 2024, reflecting its partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Katy Tyndell emerged as the Democratic nominee after her primary, but the general election on November 3 remains a low-competition contest under current conditions. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects the district's structural advantages and absence of major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns suggest these remain low-probability shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,855Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 81 percent of the vote, positioning the GOP to retain Kansas's 4th congressional district. The south-central Kansas seat has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles, including a 65 percent margin for Estes in 2024, reflecting its partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Katy Tyndell emerged as the Democratic nominee after her primary, but the general election on November 3 remains a low-competition contest under current conditions. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects the district's structural advantages and absence of major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though historical voting patterns suggest these remain low-probability shifts.
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