Republican incumbent Tom Cole holds a commanding position in Oklahoma's 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, where traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in Cole's consistent 65%+ general election margins, underpins this consensus, reinforced by his comfortable primary win and substantial campaign resources. Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci present limited threats in a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance that alters turnout patterns in this southern Oklahoma district.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$25,389 Vol.
$25,389 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,389 Vol.
$25,389 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,515 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,874 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom Cole holds a commanding position in Oklahoma's 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, where traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in Cole's consistent 65%+ general election margins, underpins this consensus, reinforced by his comfortable primary win and substantial campaign resources. Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci present limited threats in a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance that alters turnout patterns in this southern Oklahoma district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,389Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom Cole holds a commanding position in Oklahoma's 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, where traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in Cole's consistent 65%+ general election margins, underpins this consensus, reinforced by his comfortable primary win and substantial campaign resources. Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci present limited threats in a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance that alters turnout patterns in this southern Oklahoma district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,389Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Tom Cole holds a commanding position in Oklahoma's 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, where traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in Cole's consistent 65%+ general election margins, underpins this consensus, reinforced by his comfortable primary win and substantial campaign resources. Democrat Mitchell Jacob and independent Rocco Bonacci present limited threats in a seat rated Solid Republican by forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance that alters turnout patterns in this southern Oklahoma district.
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