Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-25 seats amid direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which frequently polls at similar or higher levels. This positioning reflects ongoing erosion of the party's base tied to voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, lingering effects from the judicial overhaul push, and post-October 7 security dynamics, while the broader right-wing bloc consistently falls short of a 61-seat majority. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and primary rules add further pressure. The closely matched 20-24 and 25-29 market bands capture this uncertainty, with separation likely to hinge on late shifts in turnout among key blocs, security developments, or coalition signals from parties like Yisrael Beiteinu in the final campaign weeks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIsrael Election: Likud # of seats?
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-29 35%
20-24 33%
<20 18.8%
30-34 15%
$99,295 Vol.
$99,295 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
19%
20-24
33%
25-29
35%
30-34
15%
35+
3%
25-29 35%
20-24 33%
<20 18.8%
30-34 15%
$99,295 Vol.
$99,295 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
$33,017 Vol.
19%
20-24
$15,417 Vol.
33%
25-29
$24,287 Vol.
35%
30-34
$18,387 Vol.
15%
35+
$8,186 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-25 seats amid direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which frequently polls at similar or higher levels. This positioning reflects ongoing erosion of the party's base tied to voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, lingering effects from the judicial overhaul push, and post-October 7 security dynamics, while the broader right-wing bloc consistently falls short of a 61-seat majority. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and primary rules add further pressure. The closely matched 20-24 and 25-29 market bands capture this uncertainty, with separation likely to hinge on late shifts in turnout among key blocs, security developments, or coalition signals from parties like Yisrael Beiteinu in the final campaign weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$99,295Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-25 seats amid direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which frequently polls at similar or higher levels. This positioning reflects ongoing erosion of the party's base tied to voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, lingering effects from the judicial overhaul push, and post-October 7 security dynamics, while the broader right-wing bloc consistently falls short of a 61-seat majority. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and primary rules add further pressure. The closely matched 20-24 and 25-29 market bands capture this uncertainty, with separation likely to hinge on late shifts in turnout among key blocs, security developments, or coalition signals from parties like Yisrael Beiteinu in the final campaign weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$99,295Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows Likud projected in a narrow band of roughly 21-25 seats amid direct competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, which frequently polls at similar or higher levels. This positioning reflects ongoing erosion of the party's base tied to voter fatigue with Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure, lingering effects from the judicial overhaul push, and post-October 7 security dynamics, while the broader right-wing bloc consistently falls short of a 61-seat majority. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and primary rules add further pressure. The closely matched 20-24 and 25-29 market bands capture this uncertainty, with separation likely to hinge on late shifts in turnout among key blocs, security developments, or coalition signals from parties like Yisrael Beiteinu in the final campaign weeks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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