Recent Israeli polls place Likud at an average of roughly 22 seats ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, with results ranging from the high teens to the mid-20s depending on the survey house. This distribution aligns with trader pricing that clusters most heavily on the 20-24 seat band. Persistent bloc shortfalls below 61 seats, competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, and opposition fragmentation have kept seat projections for Likud stable yet uncertain. The third anniversary of the October 7 attacks has intensified partisan exchanges over pre-war intelligence, while smaller parties’ threshold performance continues to swing coalition math. With the vote less than three weeks away, late shifts in turnout or last-minute list dynamics remain the main variables that could move the final tally outside the current narrow range.