Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected in the low-to-mid 20s, fluctuating between 21 and 23 seats across surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and others. This range keeps the 20-24 and 25-29 outcome buckets nearly even in trader pricing. Primary drivers include Likud’s seat decline from 32 in 2022 amid lingering effects of the judicial overhaul, security challenges following October 7, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has edged ahead or tied in several recent readings. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and Netanyahu’s expanded control of the slate have added volatility. Modest gains for the broader opposition bloc, still short of a majority without Arab parties, further compress expectations. Late swings in security developments, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in ultra-Orthodox and nationalist alliances could push projections outside the current narrow band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIsrael Election: Likud # of seats?
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
25-29 35%
20-24 33%
<20 18.8%
30-34 15%
$99,301 Vol.
$99,301 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
19%
20-24
33%
25-29
35%
30-34
15%
35+
3%
25-29 35%
20-24 33%
<20 18.8%
30-34 15%
$99,301 Vol.
$99,301 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
<20
$33,017 Vol.
19%
20-24
$15,423 Vol.
33%
25-29
$24,287 Vol.
35%
30-34
$18,387 Vol.
15%
35+
$8,186 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected in the low-to-mid 20s, fluctuating between 21 and 23 seats across surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and others. This range keeps the 20-24 and 25-29 outcome buckets nearly even in trader pricing. Primary drivers include Likud’s seat decline from 32 in 2022 amid lingering effects of the judicial overhaul, security challenges following October 7, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has edged ahead or tied in several recent readings. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and Netanyahu’s expanded control of the slate have added volatility. Modest gains for the broader opposition bloc, still short of a majority without Arab parties, further compress expectations. Late swings in security developments, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in ultra-Orthodox and nationalist alliances could push projections outside the current narrow band.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$99,301Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected in the low-to-mid 20s, fluctuating between 21 and 23 seats across surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and others. This range keeps the 20-24 and 25-29 outcome buckets nearly even in trader pricing. Primary drivers include Likud’s seat decline from 32 in 2022 amid lingering effects of the judicial overhaul, security challenges following October 7, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has edged ahead or tied in several recent readings. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and Netanyahu’s expanded control of the slate have added volatility. Modest gains for the broader opposition bloc, still short of a majority without Arab parties, further compress expectations. Late swings in security developments, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in ultra-Orthodox and nationalist alliances could push projections outside the current narrow band.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$99,301Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected in the low-to-mid 20s, fluctuating between 21 and 23 seats across surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and others. This range keeps the 20-24 and 25-29 outcome buckets nearly even in trader pricing. Primary drivers include Likud’s seat decline from 32 in 2022 amid lingering effects of the judicial overhaul, security challenges following October 7, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has edged ahead or tied in several recent readings. Internal party tensions over candidate selection and Netanyahu’s expanded control of the slate have added volatility. Modest gains for the broader opposition bloc, still short of a majority without Arab parties, further compress expectations. Late swings in security developments, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in ultra-Orthodox and nationalist alliances could push projections outside the current narrow band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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