Recent polling averages place Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party narrowly ahead of or tied with Likud as the largest single faction, with both around 21–23 projected seats ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote. Netanyahu’s broader right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc hovers near 51–52 seats while the Zionist opposition bloc, anchored by Yashar, sits at similar levels and remains short of a clear 61-seat majority without additional partners such as Yisrael Beytenu or smaller lists. Traders appear to price in Yashar’s consistent lead in most surveys, Eisenkot’s security credentials, and the absence of major late mergers as giving the party a modest edge in coalition negotiations. No decisive shift has emerged from the October 7 anniversary coverage or expat voting arrangements.