Lula holds a 61% implied probability of finishing first among Brazilian voters abroad in the October 25 runoff, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 39%, based on trader consensus. This positioning stems from Lula’s first-round performance abroad on October 4, where he secured 47.6% of valid votes and led in 64 countries versus Flávio’s 43.5% and 36 countries, driven by strong margins in Europe, the Middle East, and Oceania. Flávio performed better in the Americas, particularly the United States, plus Japan and Paraguay. The sharply polarized diaspora electorate, with roughly 917,000 eligible voters and 62.7% abstention in round one, continues to favor Lula in most European strongholds while Flávio retains advantages in key U.S. and Asian communities. No major campaign shifts have altered these regional patterns since the first round.