**Flávio Bolsonaro holds a strong lead in trader assessments for first place in Amapá during the October 25 presidential runoff, reflecting the state’s polarized electorate and his performance in the October 4 first round.** Lula edged him by just 225 votes statewide (45.71% to 45.67%), yet Flávio performed competitively in key urban zones such as Macapá and among evangelical voters. Recent pre-first-round surveys from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Veritá showed technical ties or narrow edges in simulated runoffs, with support patterns favoring the PL candidate among men and specific religious groups. The decisive victory of center-right-aligned Dr. Furlan in the Amapá gubernatorial race may also influence local dynamics. Traders view these factors as tilting the balance toward Flávio in the head-to-head contest, though the minimal first-round margin leaves room for shifts based on turnout and late mobilization.