Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina for the October 25 runoff against President Lula, reflected in the 98.4% implied probability for first place in the state. First-round results showed him capturing 66.7% of votes there compared with Lula’s 25%, consistent with pre-election polls indicating 50-62% support for the Liberal Party candidate versus 23-30% for the Workers’ Party incumbent. Santa Catarina’s conservative electorate, strong evangelical base, and alignment with Bolsonarista candidates—including recent Senate wins by family members—have reinforced this position. Lula’s support remains concentrated in the Northeast, limiting gains in southern states. Late shifts could occur from turnout changes, opposition consolidation, or unforeseen events before the runoff, though current trends indicate limited scope for reversal.