Lula maintains a commanding position in Alagoas second-round scenarios due to consistent polling leads across recent surveys, including margins of 10–20 points over Flavio Bolsonaro in head-to-head matchups. Multiple September 2026 polls from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, DataTrends, and AtlasIntel show Lula capturing 50–58% support in the state, backed by 58% government approval and lower rejection rates than his main rival. Northeast regional voting patterns favoring the PT further reinforce this edge. Traders price the outcome at 97.5% for Lula, reflecting these sustained trends, though late shifts in turnout, undecided voters, or unexpected campaign developments could narrow the gap before the October election.