Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated petitions, and current procedural and political barriers reinforce trader expectations that none will occur before 2027. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes narrowed standing for impeachment complaints and reinforced the two-thirds Senate threshold, while Senate leadership has declined to advance cases even after an April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices tied to a financial scandal. The Lula-aligned congressional majority and the court’s institutional protections further limit momentum for the supermajority vote required. A decisive post-2026 election shift in Senate composition could reopen pathways before year-end, though the compressed timeline and entrenched two-thirds requirement make such an outcome unlikely under prevailing conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3% peluang
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated petitions, and current procedural and political barriers reinforce trader expectations that none will occur before 2027. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes narrowed standing for impeachment complaints and reinforced the two-thirds Senate threshold, while Senate leadership has declined to advance cases even after an April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices tied to a financial scandal. The Lula-aligned congressional majority and the court’s institutional protections further limit momentum for the supermajority vote required. A decisive post-2026 election shift in Senate composition could reopen pathways before year-end, though the compressed timeline and entrenched two-thirds requirement make such an outcome unlikely under prevailing conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,546Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated petitions, and current procedural and political barriers reinforce trader expectations that none will occur before 2027. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes narrowed standing for impeachment complaints and reinforced the two-thirds Senate threshold, while Senate leadership has declined to advance cases even after an April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices tied to a financial scandal. The Lula-aligned congressional majority and the court’s institutional protections further limit momentum for the supermajority vote required. A decisive post-2026 election shift in Senate composition could reopen pathways before year-end, though the compressed timeline and entrenched two-thirds requirement make such an outcome unlikely under prevailing conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,546Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated petitions, and current procedural and political barriers reinforce trader expectations that none will occur before 2027. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes narrowed standing for impeachment complaints and reinforced the two-thirds Senate threshold, while Senate leadership has declined to advance cases even after an April 2026 congressional report recommended proceedings against three justices tied to a financial scandal. The Lula-aligned congressional majority and the court’s institutional protections further limit momentum for the supermajority vote required. A decisive post-2026 election shift in Senate composition could reopen pathways before year-end, though the compressed timeline and entrenched two-thirds requirement make such an outcome unlikely under prevailing conditions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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